Viewing archive of Sunday, 20 August 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 20 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 233 Issued at 2200Z on 20 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 19-2100Z to 20-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY SEVERAL MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 9125 DISPLAYED SIGNIFICANT DECAY. NEW REGION 9139 (S11E23) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS WITH THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED MINOR M-CLASS EVENT POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 21 AUG to 23 AUG
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       20 AUG 152
  Predicted   21 AUG-23 AUG  145/140/130
  90 Day Mean        20 AUG 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 AUG  003/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 AUG  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 AUG-23 AUG  005/008-010/008-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 21 AUG to 23 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%30%30%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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