Viewing archive of Friday, 18 August 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 231 Issued at 2200Z on 18 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT THIS PERIOD WAS A C5/1F LONG DURATION FLARE AT 18/0445Z FROM REGION 9127 (S37W67). A CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING THIS FLARE. REGION 9125 (N26W36), EXHIBITING A BETA-GAMMA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION, IS THE MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK, BUT OTHER THAN A VERY IMPULSIVE C1/SF FLARE AT 18/1810Z, THIS REGION WAS QUIET. REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE OR IN DECAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 19 AUG to 21 AUG
Class M 25%25%25%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 AUG 170
  Predicted    19 AUG-21 AUG  170/165/160
  90 Day Mean        18 AUG 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 AUG  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 AUG  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 AUG-21 AUG  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 AUG to 21 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 10%10%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 15%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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