Viewing archive of Thursday, 17 August 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 230 Issued at 2200Z on 17 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C4/1N AT 17/0837UT FROM REGION 9131 (N14E21). REGION 9125 (N26W22) REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX GROUP OF THE 12 SPOTTED REGIONS VISIBLE. REGION 9125 PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 17/1241UT. OVERALL MOST OF THE REGIONS WERE RELATIVELY STABLE AND PRODUCED VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY. ONE NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED: 9136 (N07W06).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE LOW WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED MODERATE LEVELS AT APPROXIMATELY 17/0900UT AND STAYED AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 18 AUG to 20 AUG
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 AUG 177
  Predicted   18 AUG-20 AUG  175/175/170
  90 Day Mean        17 AUG 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 AUG  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 AUG-20 AUG  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 AUG to 20 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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