Viewing archive of Monday, 14 August 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 227 Issued at 2200Z on 14 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED, THE LARGEST BEING A C8/1F FROM REGION 9126 (N06W84) AT 14/0508UT. REGION 9129 (S06E48) PRODUCED A C5/1F AT 14/0742UT. REGION 9125 (N25E15) REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX SPOT GROUP. IT HAS GROWN IN SIZE AND NUMBER OF SPOTS SINCE YESTERDAY, HOWEVER IT HAS ONLY PRODUCED ISOLATED OPTICAL SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 9132 (N23E52) AND 9133 (S09E03).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 15 AUG to 17 AUG
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 AUG 190
  Predicted   15 AUG-17 AUG  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        14 AUG 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 AUG  016/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 AUG-17 AUG  010/015-015/015-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 AUG to 17 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%35%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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