Viewing archive of Thursday, 10 August 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 223 Issued at 2200Z on 10 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST INTERESTING EVENTS RECENTLY WERE SEEN IN THE CORONA. LATE YESTERDAY A REPORT OF A HALO CME ASSOCIATED WITH FLARE ACTIVITY IN REGION 9114 (N11W29) WAS RECEIVED. THE ACTIVITY WAS SEEN TO OCCUR AT 09/1630Z. TODAY A PARTIAL HALO CME, HEADED NORTH OF THE ECLIPTIC, OCCURRED AT 0654Z. THIS EVENT WAS POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH CHROMOSPHERIC ACTIVITY IN REGION 9115 (N18W12). PROMINENCE ACTIVITY WAS SEEN AT S14W90 AND S27W90. SURGING WAS REPORTED AT N11E90. TWO NEW REGIONS CAME FULLY INTO VIEW, 9124 (S13E64) AND 9125 (N26E69). REGION 9124 IS THE LIKELY RETURN OF OLD 9087, THE PRODUCER OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY IN JULY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS. A TRANSIENT WAS SEEN TO PASS ACE AT APPROXIMATELY 0400Z, FUELING THE HIGHER LEVELS OF ACTIVITY SEEN A FEW HOURS LATER. THIS CME DOES NOT HAVE AN OBVIOUS SOLAR SOURCE. ALTHOUGH THE SOLAR WIND SPEED HAS NOW RETURNED TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS, THE IMF BZ COMPONENT IS STILL SOUTHWARD, WITH A MAGNITUDE OF -10 NT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. EFFECTS OF THE HALO CME OF 09 AUGUST ARE NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL LATE IN THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 11 AUG to 13 AUG
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 AUG 181
  Predicted   11 AUG-13 AUG  185/190/195
  90 Day Mean        10 AUG 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 AUG  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 AUG  020/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 AUG-13 AUG  010/012-010/012-015/018
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 AUG to 13 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%40%
Minor storm10%10%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%50%
Minor storm15%15%20%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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