Viewing archive of Tuesday, 8 August 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 221 Issued at 2200Z on 08 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 X-RAY FLARE AT 08/1115 UTC. OTHER THAN THIS FLARE ONLY A FEW LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED. THE LARGEST WAS A C1/SF IN REGION 9122 (N22E35) AT 07/2342 UTC. REGION 9114 (N11W01) REMAINS THE LARGEST, MOST COMPLEX SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK. NEW REGION 9123 (N18E72) ROTATED INTO VIEW AS A SMALL H-TYPE SUNSPOT.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE AND ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS IS POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 09 AUG to 11 AUG
Class M30%30%30%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 AUG 170
  Predicted   09 AUG-11 AUG  175/180/190
  90 Day Mean        08 AUG 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 AUG  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 AUG  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 AUG-11 AUG  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 AUG to 11 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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