Viewing archive of Monday, 7 August 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 220 Issued at 2200Z on 07 AUG 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ONLY A FEW SMALL C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED, NONE OF WHICH WERE ASSOCIATED WITH REPORTED OPTICAL FLARES. REGION 9114 (N12E14) CONTINUED TO PRODUCE SMALL SUBFLARES. THIS REGION HAS DECLINED SOMEWHAT IN SUNSPOT AREA AND COMPLEXITY. NEW REGION 9122 (N21E47) IS EMERGING RAPIDLY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. ADDITIONAL SMALL C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS MODERATE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 08 AUG to 10 AUG
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 AUG 167
  Predicted    08 AUG-10 AUG  170/175/180
  90 Day Mean        07 AUG 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 AUG  015/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 AUG  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 AUG-10 AUG  010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 AUG to 10 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm 01%01%01%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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