Viewing archive of Friday, 4 August 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Aug 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 217 Issued at 2200Z on 04 AUG 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ISOLATED, OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED LOW C-CLASS ACTIVITY OCCURRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
OCCASIONAL SMALL FAINT FLARES WERE OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9114 (N13E54)
AND 9115 (N17E68), BUT MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS IN THESE REGIONS
APPEAR RATHER SIMPLE. A LARGE, DARK FILAMENT NEAR DISK CENTER WAS
QUITE ACTIVE AND MAY SOON ERUPT. NEW REGION 9116 (S12E63) WAS
NUMBERED TODAY. REMAINING REGIONS WERE MOSTLY STABLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
LOW LEVELS. ISOLATED LOW C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH A SINGLE MINOR STORM
PERIOD BETWEEN 04/06 - 09Z. PERIODS OF SUSTAINED SOUTHWARD BZ ARE
CAUSING THIS MINOR DISTURBANCE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT
GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BECAME HIGH LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 05 AUG to 07 AUG
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 AUG 154 Predicted 05 AUG-07 AUG 160/165/170 90 Day Mean 04 AUG 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 AUG 008/012 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 AUG 014/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 AUG-07 AUG 010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 AUG to 07 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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