Viewing archive of Monday, 31 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 31 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 213 Issued at 2200Z on 31 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 30-2100Z to 31-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. SEVERAL OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED. THE LARGEST WAS A
C3 OBSERVED AT 31/0206Z. REGION 9107 WAS SPLIT INTO TWO REGIONS
TODAY: REGION 9107 (S16E38), AND NEW REGION 9110 (S19E55), WITH
BETA MAGNETIC CLASSIFICATION AND DSO AND ESO SPOT CLASSIFICATIONS,
RESPECTIVELY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT A LOW LEVEL FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS, WITH A GREATER CHANCE OF
MODERATE ACTIVITY BY DAY THREE DUE TO ROTATION OF ACTIVE REGIONS
AROUND THE EAST LIMB.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO ACTIVE, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS OBSERVED IN THE LOCAL NIGHTTIME SECTOR AT MIDDLE AND HIGH
LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS, WITH
ACTIVE PERIODS DUE TO POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF A FAVORABLY POSITIONED
CORONAL HOLE. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY BY DAY
THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 01 AUG to 03 AUG
| Class M | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 31 JUL 148 Predicted 01 AUG-03 AUG 155/155/165 90 Day Mean 31 JUL 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JUL 010/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JUL 014/016 PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 AUG-03 AUG 012/018-012/018-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 AUG to 03 AUG
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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