Viewing archive of Saturday, 29 July 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 211 Issued at 2200Z on 29 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS FLARES WERE OBSERVED, THOUGH MANY WERE OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT 28/2222Z, MOST LIKELY RESULTING FROM ACTIVITY BEHIND THE LIMB. THE LARGEST FLARE OBSERVED WAS A C3.5/SF FROM REGION 9105 (N14E54). SMALLER C-CLASS/SF FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM REGIONS 9100 (S29W28), 9103 (N08W11), AND NEW REGION 9107 (S19E69). REGION 9103 EXHIBITED CONTINUED GROWTH, WHILE REGION 9097 (N09W68) HAS FURTHER DECAYED. NEW REGIONS NUMBERED TODAY INCLUDE 9107, 9108 (S09W18), AND 9109 (S07E40).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM PREDOMINANTLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF MAJOR STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES. ACTIVITY WAS DUE TO CONTINUED EFFECTS OF TRANSIENT MATERIAL PASSAGE FROM THE CME OBSERVED ON 25 JULY. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ACTIVE LEVELS MAY BE OBSERVED IN CONJUNCTION WITH POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF CORONAL HOLES EXPECTED BY DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 30 JUL to 01 AUG
Class M25%25%25%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 JUL 153
  Predicted   30 JUL-01 AUG  150/150/155
  90 Day Mean        29 JUL 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUL  016/030
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUL  021/026
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUL-01 AUG  010/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 JUL to 01 AUG
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm20%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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