Viewing archive of Thursday, 27 July 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 209 Issued at 2200Z on 27 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. REGION 9090 (N14W76) PRODUCED AN M2/SB FLARE AT 27/0410Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED TENFLARE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 27/1711Z, LIKELY DUE TO ACTIVITY FROM REGION 9087, BEHIND THE WEST LIMB. A FULL HALO WAS EVIDENT IN SOHO/LASCO IMAGERY BEGINNING AT 1954Z. REGIONS 9090 AND 9097 (N09W41) BOTH APPEAR TO BE DECAYING IN SIZE AND COMPLEXITY. NEW REGIONS 9104 (S23E65), 9105 (N13E81), AND 9106 (S10W15) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT MODERATE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED, WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGHER LATITUDES EARLY IN THE DAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF MINOR STORM PERIODS AT HIGHER LATITUDES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THIS INCREASED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO THE CME OBSERVED ON 25 JULY. ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BY THE THIRD DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 28 JUL to 30 JUL
Class M60%50%40%
Class X10%10%05%
Proton10%10%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 JUL 162
  Predicted   28 JUL-30 JUL  160/155/155
  90 Day Mean        27 JUL 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUL  016/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUL  007/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUL-30 JUL  020/030-020/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 JUL to 30 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm20%20%10%
Major-severe storm15%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm20%20%15%

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