Viewing archive of Wednesday, 26 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 26 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 208 Issued at 2200Z on 26 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 25-2100Z to 26-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE OCCURRED AT 26/0743Z, MOST LIKELY FROM REGION
9087 BEHIND THE WEST LIMB (S11W94). A SINGLE C5/SF FLARE WAS
OBSERVED AT 26/1807Z FROM REGION 9097 (N07W27), WHICH REMAINS THE
LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK. NUMEROUS C-CLASS FLARES WERE ALSO
OBSERVED FROM REGION 9090 (N14W61) THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. NEW
REGION 9103 (N08E28) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 9090 AND 9097 ARE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR
M-CLASS ACTIVITY. A MODEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED X-CLASS OR PROTON
PRODUCING FLARES ALSO EXISTS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 25/2100Z TO 26/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. TWO WEAK SHOCK PASSAGES AT APPROXIMATELY
0300Z AND 1800Z CONTRIBUTED TO PERIODS OF ACTIVE AND MINOR STORM
LEVELS IN THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE, WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
ISOLATED MINOR STORM LEVELS ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF THE CME ACTIVITY FROM
25/0249Z.
III. Event Probabilities 27 JUL to 29 JUL
| Class M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Class X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Proton | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 26 JUL 175 Predicted 27 JUL-29 JUL 170/175/170 90 Day Mean 26 JUL 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 25 JUL 004/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 26 JUL 016/016 PREDICTED AFR/AP 27 JUL-29 JUL 010/012-020/025-020/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 JUL to 29 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 20% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 25% | 20% |
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