Viewing archive of Saturday, 22 July 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 22 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 22 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21-2100Z to 22-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MODERATE. THE MOST ENERGETIC EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS AN M3 CLASS EVENT BEGINNING AT 22/1117Z IN REGION 9085 (N14W63). THE EVENT WAS COMPARATIVELY LONG LIVED AND ACCOMPANIED BY TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO EMISSION. FLARES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN REGIONS 9087 (S12W39), 9090 (N12W07), AND 9095 (N21W55). THE MOST COMPLEX REGIONS ARE 9087 (S12W39), A GAMMA-DELTA, REGION 9090 (N12W07), A BETA-GAMMA, AND 9097 (N06E25), A BETA-GAMMA. NEW REGIONS HAVE APPEARED AND BEEN NUMBERED AS 9100 (S31E58) AND 9101 (S16E68). A LONG, NARROW NEGATIVE-POLARITY CORONAL HOLE EXTENDS FROM APPROXIMATELY W35 TO E65 AND BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY N30 TO N45 DEGREES.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATE TO HIGH. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT ACTIVE LEVELS. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 22/1320Z AND REACHED A MAXIMUM FLUX OF 17 PFU AT 22/1405Z. FLUX LEVELS REMAINED NEAR 10 PFU AT FORECAST ISSUE TIME. THE PROTON EVENT APPEARED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FLARE AT 22/1117Z. AN ASSOCIATED MINOR ENHANCEMENT OF PROTONS WITH ENERGY GREATER THAN 100 MEV BEGAN AT ABOUT 22/1200Z. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV INCREASE DID NOT MEET SEC EVENT CRITERIA AND HAD RETURNED TO NEAR-BACKGROUND LEVELS BY 22/1900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE.
III. Event Probabilities 23 JUL to 25 JUL
Class M85%80%75%
Class X35%30%20%
Proton35%30%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       22 JUL 251
  Predicted   23 JUL-25 JUL  245/235/230
  90 Day Mean        22 JUL 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 JUL  006/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 JUL  012/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 JUL-25 JUL  020/025-020/025-012/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 JUL to 25 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active28%28%28%
Minor storm13%15%10%
Major-severe storm06%06%06%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm15%10%05%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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