Viewing archive of Friday, 14 July 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 14 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 196 Issued at 2200Z on 14 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 13-2100Z to 14-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9077 (N18W09) PRODUCED AN X5/3B X-RAY EVENT AT 14/1024Z. THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 3000 SFU TENFLARE, A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF APPROXIMATELY 1300 KM/S, AND A STRONG TYPE IV SWEEP. THE SOHO/LASCO IMAGERY INDICATES A FULL HALO, EARTH DIRECTED CME FROM THIS EVENT. REGION 9077 ALSO PRODUCED AN M3/1N AT 14/1344Z. CURRENTLY, REGION 9077 IS AN FKC BETA-GAMMA-DELTA SUNSPOT GROUP AND HAS SHOWN SLIGHT GROWTH SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 9085 (N13E47) CONTINUED TO SHOW SOME MINOR GROWTH DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGIONS 9087 (S12E71) AND 9088 (N23E25) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9077 AND 9085 AND 9081 (N02E29) HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS. ANOTHER MAJOR EVENT IS POSSIBLE FROM REGION 9077. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM. ONE ISOLATED PERIOD OF MAJOR STORMING OCCURRED FROM 14/1500-1800Z. THIS IS BELIEVED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1/2B EVENT ON 12 JULY. THE X-CLASS EVENT DESCRIBED IN PART 1A. PRODUCED PROTON EVENTS AT THE GREATER THAN 10 AND 100 MEV WHICH REMAIN IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV CROSSED THE EVENT THRESHOLD OF 1 PFU AT 14/1040Z, REACHED A PEAK FLUX OF 310 PFU AT 14/1310Z, AND HAS BEGUN TO DECLINE. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT THRESHOLD AT 14/1050Z, AND HAS NOT YET PEAKED (HIGHEST FLUX OBSERVED SO FAR WAS 8370 PFU AT 14/1850Z). THE PCA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FLARE BEGAN AT ABOUT 14/1041Z, PEAKED AT 28.0 DB, AND REMAINS IN PROGRESS. THIS X5 EVENT PRODUCED THE SECOND GROUND LEVEL EVENT (GLE) OF THE SOLAR CYCLE (LAST GLE IN NOVEMBER, 1997). THE THULE, GREENLAND NEUTRON MONITORS MEASURED THE GLE BEGINNING AT 14/1036Z, PEAKED WITH ABOUT A 36% INCREASE ABOVE BACKGROUND AT 14/1043Z AND APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED AT 14/1415Z. MULTIPLE SHORT DURATION MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS WERE OBSERVED ON GOES-8 (W074) FROM 14/1740Z TO APPROXIMATELY 14/1810Z AND 14/1915Z TO 14/2000Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL HALO CME FROM THE X5/3B EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE IN 1A. THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FIRST DAY. MAJOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER THE STORM ONSET THROUGH THE SECOND DAY OF THE PERIOD. BY LATE ON THE THIRD DAY OF THE PERIOD ACTIVITY SHOULD START TO DECREASE TO ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS.
III. Event Probabilities 15 JUL to 17 JUL
Class M80%80%80%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton99%99%99%
PCAFIN PROGRESS
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       14 JUL 204
  Predicted   15 JUL-17 JUL  200/195/195
  90 Day Mean        14 JUL 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 JUL  018/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 JUL  025/036
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 JUL-17 JUL  060/075-100/130-050/060
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 JUL to 17 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%20%
Minor storm25%20%25%
Major-severe storm60%70%50%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%10%15%
Minor storm15%10%20%
Major-severe storm70%80%60%

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