Viewing archive of Wednesday, 12 July 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 194 Issued at 2200Z on 12 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9077 (N17E16) PRODUCED THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT EVENTS FOR THE PERIOD. IT PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 12/0502Z WITH MINOR CENTIMETRIC BURSTS. THIS WAS FOLLOWED BY AN X1/2B AT 12/1037Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 390 SFU TENFLARE AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP. REGION 9070 (N19W63) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 12/1655Z. REGION 9077 PRODUCED ANOTHER MAJOR FLARE AT 12/1849Z, AN M5/2F WITH AN ASSOCIATED 230 SFU TENFLARE. AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP OCCURRED AT 12/2014Z. BOTH REGIONS 9070 AND 9077 MAINTAIN COMPLEX MAGNETIC DELTA CONFIGURATIONS. AN IMPRESSIVE CME WAS OBSERVED AROUND 12/0200Z FROM A REGION ON OR BEHIND THE SOUTHEAST LIMB OF THE SUN.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT HIGH LEVELS. EXPECT FREQUENT C-CLASS FLARES WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM REGION 9070. REGION 9077 WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MAJOR FLARES. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. MINOR STORMING WAS OBSERVED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS YESTERDAY'S DISTURBANCE SUBSIDED. MOSTLY MINOR TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS REMAIN ENHANCED BUT HAVE NOT YET CROSSED ALERT THRESHOLD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AT QUIET TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS. MINOR TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE ON DAY ONE AS A RESULT OF CME'S OBSERVED ON 10-11 JULY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS ON DAY THREE OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS FLUX ARE STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS EVENT THRESHOLD DURING THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 13 JUL to 15 JUL
Class M 90%90%90%
Class X 50%50%50%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 JUL 230
  Predicted    13 JUL-15 JUL  225/220/200
  90 Day Mean        12 JUL 183
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUL  031/031
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUL  015/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUL-15 JUL  025/025-050/050-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 JUL to 15 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%20%15%
Minor storm 25%40%10%
Major-severe storm 30%40%07%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm 30%40%15%
Major-severe storm 40%40%10%

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