Viewing archive of Tuesday, 11 July 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 193 Issued at 2200Z on 11 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9077 (N19E31) PRODUCED AN M5/2B EARLY IN THE PERIOD AT 10/2142Z. AN ASSOCIATED TYPE II AND TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP WAS ALSO OBSERVED. AN IMPRESSIVE LARGE FILAMENT ERUPTION/CME WAS ALSO OBSERVED AT THIS TIME FROM NEAR N45E73. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND MAINTAINS A COMPLEX DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IN OVER 1000 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. REGION 9077 ALSO PRODUCED AN M4 AT 11/1141Z FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY AN X1 AT 11/1310Z, BOTH ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG DURATION 1B FLARE. A LARGE CENTIMETRIC BURST ALSO OCCURRED WITH THIS FLARE INCLUDING A 1600 SFU TENFLARE. REGION 9070 (N18W31) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 11/1958Z. THIS REGION HAS DEVELOPED INTO A MODERATELY SIZED AND MAGNETICALLY COMPLEX REGION AND IS CURRENTLY 420 MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT IN A BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION. THREE NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGIONS 9081 (N03E69), 9082 (S12E39), AND 9083 (S18W21).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGIONS 9070 AND 9077 WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE M-CLASS WITH A GOOD CHANCE FOR X-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM. DISTURBED CONDITIONS CONTINUED THIS PERIOD FOLLOWING YESTERDAY'S SHOCK AT 10/0558Z. A SECOND SHOCK WAS OBSERVED ON THE ACE SPACECRAFT AT 11/1125Z, ENHANCING THE EXISTING STORM. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON ENHANCEMENT FOLLOWED THIS MORNING'S X1 FLARE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. GEOMAGNETIC STORMING AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS IS EXPECTED LATE ON DAY TWO THROUGH DAY THREE IN RESPONSE TO THE RECENT CME'S. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTONS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED THE 10 PFU THRESHOLD ON DAY ONE OF THE FORECAST.
III. Event Probabilities 12 JUL to 14 JUL
Class M80%80%80%
Class X30%30%30%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 JUL 225
  Predicted   12 JUL-14 JUL  220/210/205
  90 Day Mean        11 JUL 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUL  018/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUL  028/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUL-14 JUL  020/025-025/025-050/050
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 JUL to 14 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active60%60%20%
Minor storm20%20%40%
Major-severe storm10%10%40%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%20%
Minor storm30%30%40%
Major-severe storm20%20%40%

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