Viewing archive of Monday, 10 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 10 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 192 Issued at 2200Z on 10 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS PRODUCED
M-CLASS EVENTS DURING THE PERIOD. REGION 9077 (N16E44) PRODUCED A
LONG DURATION M1/SF AT 10/1056Z AND ANOTHER M1/1N AT 10/1426Z. THIS
REGION CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK AND HAS
DEVELOPED A DELTA CONFIGURATION SINCE YESTERDAY. REGION 9069
(S17W39) PRODUCED AN M1/1N AT 10/1838Z AND SPOTLESS REGION 9066
(N12W68) PRODUCED AN M1/SF AT 10/2005Z. NEW REGION 9080 (N25E68)
WAS NUMBERED EARLY IN THE PERIOD TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9070 AND 9077 CONTINUE TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
FOLLOWED A WEAK SHOCK OBSERVED FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT DATA AT
10/0558Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT ACTIVE LEVELS THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD.
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE SECOND AND THIRD DAY
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 11 JUL to 13 JUL
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 10 JUL 215 Predicted 11 JUL-13 JUL 220/220/210 90 Day Mean 10 JUL 182
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JUL 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUL 018/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUL-13 JUL 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 JUL to 13 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 25% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 20% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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