Viewing archive of Sunday, 9 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 09 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 191 Issued at 2200Z on 09 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9077 (N16E55)
PRODUCED AN M5/1N AT 09/0723Z. OUT OF THE 13 SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE
DISK, REGION 9077 IS THE LARGEST WITH AN AREA OF 660 MILLIONTHS. A
WEAK OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT
09/1117Z (ESTIMATED SHOCK SPEED 800 KM/S). NEW REGION 9079 (S29E65)
WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 9070 (N19W24) AND REGION 9077 ARE BOTH CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING M-CLASS FLARES WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS
FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE SECOND
AND THIRD DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO THE HALO CME
OBSERVED 07 JULY.
III. Event Probabilities 10 JUL to 12 JUL
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 09 JUL 211 Predicted 10 JUL-12 JUL 215/220/220 90 Day Mean 09 JUL 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUL 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUL 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUL-12 JUL 010/015-025/028-025/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 JUL to 12 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 60% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 30% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 60% | 60% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 35% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
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