Viewing archive of Friday, 7 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9071 (N23W48), A
SEEMINGLY SIMPLE BIPOLE, PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS EVENTS, AN M1/SN WITH
TYPE II SWEEP AT 1105Z, AND AN M1/1B AT 1819Z. REGION 9070 (N18E03),
A LARGER AND MORE COMPLEX GROUP, HAD FREQUENT MID-SIZED C-CLASS
EVENTS. LASCO REPORTED A HALO CME, FIRST SEEN AT 1026Z, POSSIBLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE FROM CENTER DISK. ONE NEW
REGION, NUMBERED 9077 (N18E71), CAME INTO VIEW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 9071 SHOULD CONTINUE PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS
ACTIVITY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE
DAYS. EFFECTS OF TODAY'S HALO CME ARE NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL 11 JULY.
III. Event Probabilities 08 JUL to 10 JUL
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 JUL 187 Predicted 08 JUL-10 JUL 195/200/205 90 Day Mean 07 JUL 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JUL 006/007 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUL 006/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUL-10 JUL 010/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 JUL to 10 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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