Viewing archive of Friday, 7 July 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 189 Issued at 2200Z on 07 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9071 (N23W48), A SEEMINGLY SIMPLE BIPOLE, PRODUCED TWO M-CLASS EVENTS, AN M1/SN WITH TYPE II SWEEP AT 1105Z, AND AN M1/1B AT 1819Z. REGION 9070 (N18E03), A LARGER AND MORE COMPLEX GROUP, HAD FREQUENT MID-SIZED C-CLASS EVENTS. LASCO REPORTED A HALO CME, FIRST SEEN AT 1026Z, POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE FROM CENTER DISK. ONE NEW REGION, NUMBERED 9077 (N18E71), CAME INTO VIEW.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGION 9071 SHOULD CONTINUE PRODUCING LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. EFFECTS OF TODAY'S HALO CME ARE NOT ANTICIPATED UNTIL 11 JULY.
III. Event Probabilities 08 JUL to 10 JUL
Class M60%60%60%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 JUL 187
  Predicted   08 JUL-10 JUL  195/200/205
  90 Day Mean        07 JUL 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JUL  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUL  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUL-10 JUL  010/010-010/012-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 JUL to 10 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%20%20%
Minor storm10%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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