Viewing archive of Thursday, 6 July 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 06 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 188 Issued at 2200Z on 06 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS, AMONG THEM A C4/SF FROM REGION 9070 (N18E15) WITH ASSOCIATED TYPE II SWEEP AT 1236Z, OCCURRED. ANOTHER C4, WITH NO OPTICAL ASSOCIATION, WAS DETECTED AT 2045Z. TWO NEW REGIONS, 9075 (N06E64) AND 9076 (S24E69) WERE NUMBERED. REGIONS 9068 (S18W03) AND 9070 WERE THE MOST IMPRESSIVE OF THE 13 REGIONS VISIBLE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 05-2100Z to 06-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND, EMANATING FROM AN ELONGATED N-S CORONAL HOLE, SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE MAGNETOSPHERE JULY 7. THAT SHORT-LIVED DISTURBANCE SHOULD SUBSIDE BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 07 JUL to 09 JUL
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       06 JUL 174
  Predicted   07 JUL-09 JUL  180/185/190
  90 Day Mean        06 JUL 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 JUL  006/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 JUL  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 JUL-09 JUL  015/015-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 JUL to 09 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%15%
Minor storm05%05%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm10%10%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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