Viewing archive of Wednesday, 5 July 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 187 Issued at 2200Z on 05 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED LOW. THOUGH FEW FLARES OCCURRED, A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF NEW FLUX EMERGED, AS EVIDENCED BY FOUR NEW REGIONS THAT WERE NUMBERED. THE REGIONS ARE: 9071 (N22W23), 9072 (N15E16), 9073 (S21E44), AND 9074 (N10E64). THERE ARE 13 REGIONS ON THE DISK, WITH REGION 9070 (N17E29) THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX. THERE WAS A TYPE II SWEEP ASSOCIATED WITH A FILAMENT DISAPPEARANCE FROM REGION 9068 (S19E11) AT 04/2243Z. THAT EVENT WAS DEVOID OF ANY X-RAY ENHANCEMENT, AND DID NOT APPEAR TO SPAWN AN EARTH-DIRECTED CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. THE FEW ACTIVE PERIODS WERE RELATED TO HOUR-LONG INTERVALS OF SOUTHWARD INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD ORIENTATION.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. EFFECTS OF A HIGH-SPEED SOLAR WIND STREAM ARE DUE, FROM AN EXTENDED NORTH-SOUTH CORONAL HOLE NOW LOCATED MID-WAY IN THE WESTERN SOLAR HEMISPHERE.
III. Event Probabilities 06 JUL to 08 JUL
Class M10%10%10%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 JUL 169
  Predicted   06 JUL-08 JUL  175/180/185
  90 Day Mean        05 JUL 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUL  010/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUL  010/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUL-08 JUL  015/015-015/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 JUL to 08 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active25%25%25%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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