Viewing archive of Tuesday, 4 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 04 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 186 Issued at 2200Z on 04 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A NUMBER OF LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS
FLARES OCCURRED IN A VARIETY OF REGIONS. SUNSPOT GROUPS CONTRIBUTING
TO THE ACTIVITY INCLUDED 9062 (S16W46), 9068 (S20E26), AND 9070
(N18E44). NONE OF THE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE DISK ARE PARTICULARLY
LARGE OR COMPLEX.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS FARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL DIFFERENT AREAS, INCLUDING
9062, 9068, AND 9070.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03-2100Z to 04-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III. Event Probabilities 05 JUL to 07 JUL
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 JUL 158 Predicted 05 JUL-07 JUL 160/160/160 90 Day Mean 04 JUL 180
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 JUL 008/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 JUL 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 JUL-07 JUL 015/015-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 JUL to 07 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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