Viewing archive of Monday, 3 July 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 185 Issued at 2200Z on 03 JUL 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY A FEW SUBFLARES
OCCURRED, ALL OF WHICH WERE LESS THAN C-CLASS. GROWTH IN REGION 9068
(S19E38) HAS SLOWED. ALL SUNSPOT GROUPS PRESENTLY ON THE DISK ARE
RELATIVELY SIMPLE AND INACTIVE.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE IN A NUMBER OF REGIONS WITH
9068 BEING THE MOST LIKELY.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED BECOMING UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE BY
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL
HOLE.
III. Event Probabilities 04 JUL to 06 JUL
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 JUL 156 Predicted 04 JUL-06 JUL 154/152/150 90 Day Mean 03 JUL 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUL 003/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUL 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUL-06 JUL 010/010-010/010-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 JUL to 06 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 05% |
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