Viewing archive of Sunday, 2 July 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jul 02 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 184 Issued at 2200Z on 02 JUL 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01-2100Z to 02-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE BY VIRTUE OF AN M1 FLARE AT 01/2325 UTC. NO OPTICAL FLARE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED AND IMAGES FROM THE SOHO SPACECRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE SOURCE OF THE FLARE WAS NOT ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR HEMISPHERE. REGION 9062 (S16W18) CONTINUES TO DECAY AND SIMPLIFY BUT REMAINS THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE DISK. REGION 9068 (S19E51) IS EMERGING RAPIDLY AND HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS SUBFLARES. NEW REGION 9070 (N19E72) ROTATED ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN REGION 9068. ANOTHER LOW-LEVEL M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III. Event Probabilities 03 JUL to 05 JUL
Class M20%20%20%
Class X01%01%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       02 JUL 162
  Predicted   03 JUL-05 JUL  160/160/165
  90 Day Mean        02 JUL 181
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 JUL  007/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 JUL  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 JUL-05 JUL  010/005-010/008-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 JUL to 05 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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