Viewing archive of Thursday, 29 June 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 29 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 181 Issued at 2200Z on 29 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE SEVERAL, MOSTLY LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS THIS PERIOD. THE LARGEST WAS A C6 EVENT AT 29/0751Z. THIS ACTIVITY ALONG WITH ALL THE OTHER C-CLASS EVENTS WERE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY ON OR BEHIND THE NW AND SW LIMB. REGION 9062 (S16E23) IS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK AND IS NOW A D TYPE SPOT GROUP COVERING 360 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA. SOME GROWTH WAS NOTED IN THIS REGION DURING THE PERIOD, BUT SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY HAS YET TO OCCUR. A NEW ACTIVE REGION WITH FREQUENT SURGING IS ROTATING THE NE LIMB. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW. THE LIKELIHOOD OF AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM THE REGIONS ON THE WEST LIMB IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY. MOSTLY LOW LEVEL, ISOLATED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS ARE EXPECTED.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 28-2100Z to 29-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH THE ACTIVE CONDITIONS CONFINED TO LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ACTIVE CONDITIONS MOSTLY CONFINED TO HIGH LATITUDES IN LOCAL NIGHTTIME.
III. Event Probabilities 30 JUN to 02 JUL
Class M30%30%30%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       29 JUN 163
  Predicted   30 JUN-02 JUL  165/165/170
  90 Day Mean        29 JUN   184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 JUN  011/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 JUN  014/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 JUN-02 JUL  010/008-010/008-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 JUN to 02 JUL
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%50%50%
Minor storm25%30%25%
Major-severe storm11%16%11%

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