Viewing archive of Wednesday, 28 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 28 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 180 Issued at 2200Z on 28 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST X-RAY EVENT THIS
PERIOD WAS A C6 FLARE, OBSERVED ON EIT IMAGERY NEAR THE SW LIMB AT
28/1219Z. A PROMINENCE ERUPTED ON THE NW LIMB NEAR NORTH 20,
RESULTING IN A LARGE CME WITH TYPE II SWEEP (SHOCK SPEED 536 KM/S)
AND A RATHER LONG DURATION C3 X-RAY BURST. BRIGHT SURGING WAS
EVIDENT ON THE NW LIMB SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO THIS ERUPTION.
REMAINING REGIONS WERE RELATIVELY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. MOSTLY LOW LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY WITH AN
ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 27-2100Z to 28-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. WEAK CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS
CONTINUED TODAY.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
III. Event Probabilities 29 JUN to 01 JUL
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 28 JUN 175 Predicted 29 JUN-01 JUL 175/175/180 90 Day Mean 28 JUN 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JUN 014/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JUN 008/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JUN-01 JUL 010/010-010/010-010/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 JUN to 01 JUL
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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