Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 27 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE TWO EVENTS OF NOTE
THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS A 27 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTION FROM NEAR
N44W82 AT AROUND 27/1000Z. AN IMPRESSIVE CME WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING
THE ERUPTION, BUT THE MATERIAL DOES NOT APPEAR EARTHBOUND. REGION
9062 (S18E48) PRODUCED A C9/2N FLARE AT 27/1255Z. THIS REGION
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE. NEW REGION 9064 WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK HAVE PRODUCED LOW
LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO. AN
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ONE QUIET
PERIOD OBSERVED BETWEEN 27/09 - 12Z. A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE
STREAM IS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE.
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON DAY TWO AND THREE, WITH
ISOLATED HIGH LATITUDE ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Event Probabilities 28 JUN to 30 JUN
| Class M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 27 JUN 179 Predicted 28 JUN-30 JUN 165/165/170 90 Day Mean 27 JUN 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUN 022/033 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUN 015/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUN-30 JUN 015/017-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 JUN to 30 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 06% | 06% | 02% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 30% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
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