Viewing archive of Tuesday, 27 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 27 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 179 Issued at 2200Z on 27 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 26-2100Z to 27-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THERE WERE TWO EVENTS OF NOTE THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST WAS A 27 DEGREE FILAMENT ERUPTION FROM NEAR N44W82 AT AROUND 27/1000Z. AN IMPRESSIVE CME WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING THE ERUPTION, BUT THE MATERIAL DOES NOT APPEAR EARTHBOUND. REGION 9062 (S18E48) PRODUCED A C9/2N FLARE AT 27/1255Z. THIS REGION CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EVOLVE. NEW REGION 9064 WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK HAVE PRODUCED LOW LEVEL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DO SO. AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IS POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ONE QUIET PERIOD OBSERVED BETWEEN 27/09 - 12Z. A HIGH SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM IS THE LIKELY SOURCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS THROUGH DAY ONE. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON DAY TWO AND THREE, WITH ISOLATED HIGH LATITUDE ACTIVE PERIODS.
III. Event Probabilities 28 JUN to 30 JUN
Class M 30%30%30%
Class X 05%05%05%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       27 JUN 179
  Predicted    28 JUN-30 JUN  165/165/170
  90 Day Mean        27 JUN 184
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 JUN  022/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 JUN  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 JUN-30 JUN  015/017-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 JUN to 30 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%35%20%
Minor storm 20%15%10%
Major-severe storm 06%06%02%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%30%
Minor storm 30%25%15%
Major-severe storm 10%10%05%

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