Viewing archive of Sunday, 25 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 177 Issued at 2200Z on 25 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS DUE TO A PAIR OF M-CLASS FLARES. THE FIRST WAS AN M2/SF AT 25/0114Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED LOOP PROMINENCE SYSTEM FROM REGION 9042, NOW ABOUT A DAY BEYOND THE WEST LIMB. THE SECOND WAS AN M1/2N AT 25/0752Z FROM REGION 9046 (N21W61). THIS REGION SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD AND REMAINED A SMALL, MIXED-POLARITY SPOT GROUP. MINOR GROWTH WAS REPORTED IN REGIONS 9054 (N12W04) AND 9058 (S14W41). THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE AND SIMPLY-STRUCTURED. AN ERUPTIVE PROMINENCE WAS OBSERVED AT NE26 AROUND 25/1200Z. NEW REGION 9062 (S19E72) WAS NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY DECREASED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. A GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX ENHANCEMENT AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN AROUND 25/1300Z, LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE M1/SF LIMB-FLARE FROM OLD REGION 9042.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING 26 - 27 JUNE DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS. BRIEF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD. FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FINAL DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO BACKGROUND LEVELS EARLY TOMORROW. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO REACH MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 26 JUN to 28 JUN
Class M30%30%35%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 JUN 175
  Predicted   26 JUN-28 JUN  160/155/155
  90 Day Mean        25 JUN 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JUN  010/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JUN  006/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JUN-28 JUN  018/030-015/020-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 JUN to 28 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%35%25%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm25%25%20%
Major-severe storm10%10%01%

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