Viewing archive of Saturday, 24 June 2000

Solar activity report

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 24 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 176 Issued at 2200Z on 24 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY DECREASED TO LOW LEVELS. REGION 9042 (N22W89) PRODUCED A C7/SF FLARE EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AS IT BEGAN TO CROSS THE WEST LIMB. REGION 9046 (N21W48) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECAY AND PRODUCED A SINGLE SUBFLARE. MINOR GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGIONS 9049 (S36W34), 9054 (N12E11), AND 9058 (S14W29). THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE AND SIMPLY-STRUCTURED. NEW REGIONS 9060 (S34E59) AND 9061 (S14E74) WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARES ARE EXPECTED. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 23-2100Z to 24-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS WITH STORM LEVELS LIMITED TO THE HIGH LATITUDES. FIELD ACTIVITY DECREASED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS AFTER 24/0900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS DURING 25 - 26 JUNE. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FINAL DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III. Event Probabilities 25 JUN to 27 JUN
Class M30%25%25%
Class X10%05%05%
Proton05%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       24 JUN 168
  Predicted   25 JUN-27 JUN  160/155/155
  90 Day Mean        24 JUN 185
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JUN  020/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JUN  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JUN-27 JUN  020/025-020/030-012/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 JUN to 27 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm15%15%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%30%
Minor storm20%20%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%

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