Viewing archive of Wednesday, 21 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 173 Issued at 2200Z on 21 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9042 (N23W38) PRODUCED TODAY'S ONLY M-CLASS EVENT, AN M1/SF AT 0929Z. THE REGION PRODUCED ADDITIONAL, FREQUENT C-CLASS EVENTS, BUT APPEARED TO BE IN AN OVERALL STATE OF GRADUAL DECLINE. REGION 9046 (N21W07) CONTINUES TO BE THE LARGEST GROUP ON THE DISK BUT WAS RELATIVELY STABLE. REGIONS 9050 (S08W48) AND 9052 (S26W52) SHOWED STEADY SLOW GROWTH, BUT WERE ALSO STABLE. NEW REGIONS 9055 (N19E70) AND 9056 (S15E68) ROTATED INTO VIEW TODAY AS SIMPLE H-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUPS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 9042 AND 9046 CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR POSSIBLE M-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 22 JUN to 24 JUN
Class M40%40%40%
Class X05%05%05%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 JUN 188
  Predicted   22 JUN-24 JUN  185/185/180
  90 Day Mean        21 JUN 186
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 JUN  009/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 JUN  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 JUN-24 JUN  010/010-010/015-010/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 JUN to 24 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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