Viewing archive of Monday, 19 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 171 Issued at 2200Z on 19 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LOW DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. TODAY'S ACTIVITY CONSISTED OF A FEW, LOW-LEVEL C-CLASS FLARES. REGION 9042 (N23W11) WAS ONE OF THE MORE ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE SUN, PRODUCING OCCASIONAL SUBFLARE ACTIVITY. REGION 9046 (N21E19) IS THE LARGEST REGION ON THE DISK (570 MILLIONTHS), BUT COULD ONLY MUSTER ONE SUBFLARE. A FILAMENT OF ABOUT 30 DEGREES LENGTH ERUPTED FROM THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE DISK LATE ON THE 18TH. A CME WAS SUBSEQUENTLY OBSERVED TO ENTER THE LASCO/C2 FIELD OF VIEW CLOSE TO THE NORTH SOLAR POLE AT 18/2140Z. THE TRANSIENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTHBOUND.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGIONS 9042 AND 9046 ARE THE MOST LIKELY SOURCES FOR M-CLASS LEVEL ACTIVITY. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE OR A PROTON PRODUCING FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 20 JUN to 22 JUN
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 JUN 178
  Predicted   20 JUN-22 JUN  180/180/180
  90 Day Mean        19 JUN 187
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 JUN  010/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 JUN  007/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 JUN-22 JUN  010/010-010/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 JUN to 22 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%20%20%
Minor storm10%10%10%
Major-severe storm05%05%05%

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