Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9033 (S25W85) PRODUCED AN X1/SF FLARE AT 18/0159Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 300 SFU TENFLARE, A 245 MHZ RADIO BURST OF 11000 SFU, AND A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF 660 KM/S. A BRIGHT SURGE ON THE LIMB WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITH THIS EVENT REACHING A RADIAL EXTENT OF .21 RV, AND THE SOHO/LASCO IMAGERY INDICATED AN ASSOCIATED CME. A 30 DEGREE FILAMENT AT N55E62 DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 17/1928Z AND 18/1158Z. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 9052 (S29W10).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE REMAINS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. GOES GT 10 MEV PROTON FLUXES BECAME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DURING THE EVENT MENTIONED IN PART IA, BUT REMAINED BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD AND RETURNED TO BACKGROUND LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THE CME ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 19 JUN to 21 JUN
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       18 JUN 188
  Predicted   19 JUN-21 JUN  185/180/175
  90 Day Mean        18 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JUN  006/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JUN  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JUN-21 JUN  008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 JUN to 21 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active10%10%10%
Minor storm01%01%01%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active15%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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