Viewing archive of Sunday, 18 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 18 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 170 Issued at 2200Z on 18 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9033 (S25W85) PRODUCED
AN X1/SF FLARE AT 18/0159Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 300 SFU TENFLARE, A
245 MHZ RADIO BURST OF 11000 SFU, AND A TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WITH A
SPEED OF 660 KM/S. A BRIGHT SURGE ON THE LIMB WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITH
THIS EVENT REACHING A RADIAL EXTENT OF .21 RV, AND THE SOHO/LASCO
IMAGERY INDICATED AN ASSOCIATED CME. A 30 DEGREE FILAMENT AT N55E62
DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 17/1928Z AND 18/1158Z. A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 9052 (S29W10).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE REMAINS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 17-2100Z to 18-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. GOES GT 10 MEV PROTON
FLUXES BECAME SLIGHTLY ENHANCED DURING THE EVENT MENTIONED IN PART
IA, BUT REMAINED BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD AND RETURNED TO BACKGROUND
LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A RESULT OF THE
CME ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 19 JUN to 21 JUN
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 18 JUN 188 Predicted 19 JUN-21 JUN 185/180/175 90 Day Mean 18 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 JUN 006/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 JUN 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 JUN-21 JUN 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 JUN to 21 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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