Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 17 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9033 (N24W77) PRODUCED AN M3/2B FLARE AT 17/0237Z. THE SOHO/LASCO C2 IMAGERY OBSERVED A CME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE WAS ALSO A 16 DEGREE LONG FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 16/1621Z AND 17/1347Z WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 9050 (S13E06) AND REGION 9051 (N16E61).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL REGIONS INCLUDING REGION 9033, 9042 (N22E16) AND 9046 (N19E44). IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS FOR QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS MAY BE EXPERIENCED ON DAY THREE AS A RESULT OF TODAY'S M3/2B AND CME FROM REGION 9033.
III. Event Probabilities 18 JUN to 20 JUN
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       17 JUN 193
  Predicted   18 JUN-20 JUN  190/185/180
  90 Day Mean        17 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUN  005/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUN  010/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUN-20 JUN  020/025-010/015-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 JUN to 20 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%15%10%
Minor storm20%05%05%
Major-severe storm05%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active60%20%20%
Minor storm25%05%05%
Major-severe storm10%01%01%

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