Viewing archive of Saturday, 17 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 169 Issued at 2200Z on 17 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9033 (N24W77)
PRODUCED AN M3/2B FLARE AT 17/0237Z. THE SOHO/LASCO C2 IMAGERY
OBSERVED A CME DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. THERE WAS ALSO A 16 DEGREE
LONG FILAMENT THAT DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 16/1621Z AND 17/1347Z WHICH
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS EVENT. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY AS REGION 9050 (S13E06) AND REGION 9051 (N16E61).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL
REGIONS INCLUDING REGION 9033, 9042 (N22E16) AND 9046 (N19E44).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS FOR THE FIRST DAY OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS FOR
QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED ON DAY THREE AS A RESULT OF TODAY'S M3/2B AND CME FROM
REGION 9033.
III. Event Probabilities 18 JUN to 20 JUN
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 JUN 193 Predicted 18 JUN-20 JUN 190/185/180 90 Day Mean 17 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 JUN 005/009 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 JUN 010/012 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 JUN-20 JUN 020/025-010/015-008/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 JUN to 20 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 01% | 01% |
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