Viewing archive of Friday, 16 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 16 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 16 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS FROM REGION 9040 (N18E07) WHICH PRODUCED AN M2/1F AT 15/2343Z. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 9048 (N07W13) AND REGION 9049 (S40E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL REGIONS INCLUDING REGION 9033 (N24W67), 9042 (N20E29) AND 9046 (N18E57). IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. DAY TWO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE DUE TO THE M1/2N FLARE AND CME OBSERVED AT 15/1957Z FROM REGION 9041 (N20W65 AT FLARE TIME). QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON DAY THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 17 JUN to 19 JUN
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       16 JUN 198
  Predicted   17 JUN-19 JUN  195/190/185
  90 Day Mean        16 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUN  021/020
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUN  008/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUN-19 JUN  015/015-020/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 JUN to 19 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active35%40%15%
Minor storm15%20%05%
Major-severe storm01%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%60%20%
Minor storm20%25%05%
Major-severe storm05%10%01%

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