Viewing archive of Friday, 16 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 168 Issued at 2200Z on 16 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE
PERIOD WAS FROM REGION 9040 (N18E07) WHICH PRODUCED AN M2/1F AT
15/2343Z. TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY AS REGION 9048
(N07W13) AND REGION 9049 (S40E65).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SEVERAL
REGIONS INCLUDING REGION 9033 (N24W67), 9042 (N20E29) AND 9046
(N18E57).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. DAY TWO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ACTIVE DUE TO THE M1/2N FLARE
AND CME OBSERVED AT 15/1957Z FROM REGION 9041 (N20W65 AT FLARE
TIME). QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN ON DAY
THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 17 JUN to 19 JUN
| Class M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 JUN 198 Predicted 17 JUN-19 JUN 195/190/185 90 Day Mean 16 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 JUN 021/020 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 JUN 008/010 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 JUN-19 JUN 015/015-020/025-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 JUN to 19 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 40% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 60% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 25% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 01% |
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