Viewing archive of Thursday, 15 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 15 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 167 Issued at 2200Z on 15 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 14-2100Z to 15-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PERIOD WAS FROM REGION 9041 (N19W65). IT PRODUCED AN M1/2N AT 15/1957Z WITH AN ASSOCIATED 290 SFU TENFLARE. A WEAK TYPE II RADIO SWEEP WAS OBSERVED AT 15/1519Z AND WAS LIKELY FROM A SUBFAINT FLARE AND CME FROM REGION 9042 (N20E43). NEW REGION 9047 (S32E30) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. SEVERAL REGIONS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS FLARES WITH A CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 14/2100Z TO 15/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. THESE STORMING CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLY THE RESULT OF A WELL POSITIONED POSITIVE CORONAL HOLE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST AS THE CORONAL HOLE ROTATES OUT OF POSITION THROUGH THE DAY.
III. Event Probabilities 16 JUN to 18 JUN
Class M50%50%50%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       15 JUN 202
  Predicted   16 JUN-18 JUN  200/195/190
  90 Day Mean        15 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 14 JUN  027/023
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 15 JUN  015/020
PREDICTED AFR/AP 16 JUN-18 JUN  010/012-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 JUN to 18 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active15%10%10%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%15%15%
Minor storm05%05%05%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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