Viewing archive of Monday, 12 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 12 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 164 Issued at 2200Z on 12 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 11-2100Z to 12-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE PERIOD WAS A C6/1B FLARE AT 12/1226Z FROM NEW REGION 9042 (N21E77). THIS REGION IS BRIGHT IN SOFT X-RAYS BUT ONLY SMALL SUNSPOTS ARE VISIBLE AT THIS TIME. MORE SPOTS ARE LIKELY TO ROTATE OVER THE LIMB. MOSTLY STABLE REGION 9036 (S22E28) GENERATED A C6/SF AT 12/0138Z. REGION 9033 (N23W09) CREATED ONLY INFREQUENT SUBFLARES. NEARBY REGION 9041 (N17W22) EMERGED AT A MODERATE PACE AND APPEARED TO BE IMPINGING UPON THE LEADER FIELDS OF REGION 9033. REGION 9026 (N22W63) WAS MOSTLY QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGIONS 9026 AND 9033 REMAIN CAPABLE OF M-CLASS FLARES AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS. CONTINUED EMERGENCE OF NEARBY REGION 9041 COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN FREQUENCY OF M-CLASS EVENTS FROM THE 9033/9041 COMPLEX. FORESHORTENING OF NEW REGION 9042 PREVENTS ACCURATE ASSESSMENT OF ITS FLARE POTENTIAL. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS BETWEEN ABOUT 450-600 KM/S. ACE ENERGETIC PARTICLE FLUXES INCREASED DURING THE PERIOD, POSSIBLY INDICATING A SHOCK/CME IS APPROACHING THE EARTH. GOES GT 10 MEV FLUXES REMAIN ENHANCED BUT BELOW EVENT THRESHOLD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
A GEOMAGNETIC STORM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON 13 JUN. GENERALLY, ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE PREDICTED FOR THAT DAY AND ISOLATED MAJOR STORM PERIODS ARE PROBABLE. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD CONTINUE INTO 14 JUN WHEN UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE PREDICTED FOR 15 JUN. A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR AN ENERGETIC SOLAR PROTON EVENT DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 13 JUN to 15 JUN
Class M 70%70%65%
Class X 15%15%15%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       12 JUN 193
  Predicted    13 JUN-15 JUN  205/210/205
  90 Day Mean        12 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 JUN  022/032
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 JUN  014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 JUN-15 JUN  040/046-020/020-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 13 JUN to 15 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%30%25%
Minor storm 40%30%15%
Major-severe storm 30%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active20%30%25%
Minor storm 40%30%15%
Major-severe storm 30%15%05%

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