Viewing archive of Sunday, 11 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 11 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 163 Issued at 2200Z on 11 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 10-2100Z to 11-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 9033 (N22E02) PRODUCED AN M1/1F AT 11/1049Z. REGION 9030 (N12W50) PRODUCED A C7/1F AT 11/1252Z. REGION 9026 (N21W51) PRODUCED ONLY MINOR ENHANCEMENTS DURING THE PERIOD BUT NEARBY FILAMENTS EXHIBITED MASS MOTIONS. SEVERAL REGIONS EMERGED ON THE DISK OR ROTATED OVER THE LIMB. NONE APPEAR SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME. RECENT LASCO CORONAGRAPH DATA INDICATE THERE WAS A FULL HALO CORONAL MASS EJECTION FOLLOWING THE M5/3B EVENT AT 10/1702Z FROM REGION 9026.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AT A MODERATE LEVEL. REGIONS 9026 AND 9033 ARE CAPABLE OF M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF A MAJOR FLARE FROM THESE REGIONS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD GENERALLY RANGED FROM UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES FROM 11/0900-1200Z. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY WAS ELEVATED (APPROACHING 600 KM/S AT THE END OF THE PERIOD). BZ WAS PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWARD FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THE GT 10 MEV PROTON EVENT THAT BEGAN AT 10/1805Z REACHED A MAXIMUM OF 46 PFU AT 10/2045Z AND DECAYED BELOW 10 PFU AT 11/1130Z. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT EXCEEDED 1000 PFU AT 11/1550Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD RANGE PRIMARILY BETWEEN UNSETTLED AND ACTIVE LEVELS ON 12 JUN WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING POSSIBLE. ABOUT MIDDAY ON 13 JUN, A DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS A RESULT OF THE FULL HALO EVENT MENTIONED ABOVE. GENERALLY ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH PERIODS AT MAJOR STORM POSSIBLE. THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF 14 JUN THEN SLOWLY ABATE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER SOLAR PROTON EVENT AND PCA SHOULD REGIONS 9026 OR 9033 PRODUCE A MAJOR FLARE. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEO SHOULD REMAIN ENHANCED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 12 JUN to 14 JUN
Class M 75%75%75%
Class X 20%20%20%
Proton20%20%20%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       11 JUN 187
  Predicted    12 JUN-14 JUN  195/205/210
  90 Day Mean        11 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 JUN  016/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 JUN  022/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 JUN-14 JUN  015/015-025/030-018/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 JUN to 14 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%30%
Minor storm 20%30%25%
Major-severe storm 05%20%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm 25%40%30%
Major-severe storm 10%20%15%

<< Go to daily overview page

Latest news

Support SpaceWeatherLive.com!

A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Sun's activity or if there is aurora to be seen, but with more traffic comes higher server costs. Consider a donation if you enjoy SpaceWeatherLive so we can keep the website online!

100%

Latest alerts

Get instant alerts!

Space weather facts

Last X-flare:2017/09/10X8.2
Last M-flare:2017/10/20M1.0
Last geomagnetic storm:2019/09/02Kp5 (G1)
Number of spotless days in 2019:190
Current stretch spotless days:20

This day in history*

Solar flares
12011X1.4
22011M1.1
32011C8.9
42000C8.5
52001C8.1
ApG
1199950G4
2199628G1
3201827G1
4200317
5200416
*since 1994

Social networks