Viewing archive of Saturday, 10 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 10 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 162 Issued at 2200Z on 10 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 09-2100Z to 10-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9026 (N23W39) PRODUCED AN M5/3B EVENT AT 10/1702Z. THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 550 SFU TENFLARE AND A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF 700 KM/S. REGION 9026 HAD BEEN IN A SIGNIFICANT STAGE OF DECAY SINCE YESTERDAY AND WAS AN EAO BETA GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 8 SPOTS WHEN THE EVENT ABOVE OCCURRED. OTHERWISE, ONLY MINOR C-CLASS EVENTS WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD. NEW REGION 9037 (N18E51) WAS NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. REGION 9033 (N22E18) NOW APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THE PRODUCTION OF M-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM. AT 09/2350, DATA FROM THE ACE SPACECRAFT DISPLAYED WHAT WAS PRESUMED TO BE THE ARRIVAL OF THE FAINT FULL HALO OBSERVED BACK ON 7 JUNE FROM THE X1/3B EVENT. AS A RESULT, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REACHED ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FROM 10/0600Z - 10/1500Z. THE M-CLASS EVENT DESCRIBED IN PART IA PRODUCED PROTON EVENTS AT GREATER THAN 10 AND 100 MEV FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT. THE GREATER THAN 100 MEV CROSSED EVENT THRESHOLD OF 1 PFU AT 10/1750Z. THE 100 MEV PEAK FLUX WAS 1.6 PFU AT 10/1755Z AND DROPPED BELOW THRESHOLD, ENDING AT 10/1830Z. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON EVENT BEGAN AT 10/1805Z AND IS STILL IN PROGRESS AT THIS TIME. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REACHED HIGH LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS. THE GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY LATE ON THE THIRD DAY IF AN INTERPLANETARY SHOCK ARRIVES AT THE EARTH FROM THE M5/3B EVENT EARLIER TODAY. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF DATA, NOT YET AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME, IS REQUIRED TO DETERMINE IF AN EARTH DIRECTED CME IS IN PROGRESS.
III. Event Probabilities 11 JUN to 13 JUN
Class M 70%70%70%
Class X 15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFRED
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       10 JUN 180
  Predicted    11 JUN-13 JUN  185/190/200
  90 Day Mean        10 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 JUN  004/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 JUN  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 JUN-13 JUN  012/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 JUN to 13 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active20%25%25%
Minor storm 10%15%15%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%30%30%
Minor storm 15%20%20%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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