Viewing archive of Friday, 9 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 09 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 161 Issued at 2200Z on 09 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 08-2100Z to 09-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 9026 (N22W29) PRODUCED A MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AT 08/2324Z AND 09/2048Z. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE OBSERVED DURING THE PERIOD IN REGION 9026. REGION 9033 (N22E29) CONTINUES TO DISPLAY GROWTH AND IS CURRENTLY AN FKI BETA GAMMA GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 42 SPOTS. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE. REGIONS 9026 AND 9033 ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO PRODUCE M-CLASS EVENTS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF X-CLASS ACTIVITY. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE 10 MEV PROTON EVENT GENERATED FROM THE X2/3B EVENT ON 06 JUNE ENDED AT 09/0325Z. THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY SLOWLY DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD FROM 750 TO 550 KM/S. WHILE MOST AVAILABLE DATA INDICATED THE CHANCE FOR A STRONG GEOMAGNETIC STORM, THE BZ MEASURED AT THE ACE SPACECRAFT STAYED NORTHWARD (POSITIVE) THE ENTIRE PERIOD, NOT ALLOWING FOR A FAVORABLE MAJOR MAGNETIC STORM SITUATION TO OCCUR.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE EFFECTS OF A FAINT FULL HALO CME, ASSOCIATED WITH THE X1/3B EVENT ON 7 JUNE, IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FIELD EARLY ON 10 JUNE. THIS MAY CAUSE ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS TO BE OBSERVED.
III. Event Probabilities 10 JUN to 12 JUN
Class M60%60%60%
Class X15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       09 JUN 169
  Predicted   10 JUN-12 JUN  175/185/190
  90 Day Mean        09 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 JUN  034/053
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 JUN  012/014
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 JUN-12 JUN  020/030-015/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 JUN to 12 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%25%25%
Minor storm20%15%15%
Major-severe storm05%05%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%30%
Minor storm25%20%10%
Major-severe storm10%10%05%

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