Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 08 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NUMEROUS MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY
EVENTS OCCURRED. TWO EVENTS WERE OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH REGION
9026 (N21W17). ONLY ONE C1/SF EVENT WAS OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH
REGION 9033 (N22E42) AT 08/1811Z. REGION 9026 SHOWED A MODERATE
INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SPOTS WHILE THE AREA SLIGHTLY DECREASED,
AND THE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION OF THE REGION BECAME BETA GAMMA.
OVERALL, IT APPEARS 9026 IS STARTING TO DECAY. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH
WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 9033. NEW REGIONS 9035 (S17E15) AND 9036
(S23E73) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 9026 AND 9033 ARE EACH CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING M-CLASS AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM. A SUDDEN
IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 08/0909Z (77 NT, AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS
MAGNETOMETER). THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY JUMPED FROM 520 TO OVER 800
KM/S AT 08/0841Z. MINOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED
FOLLOWING THE SHOCK ARRIVAL. THIS SHOCK IS PRESUMED TO BE RELATED
TO THE X2/3B EVENT ON 06 JUNE. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT PEAKED AT 84 PFU'S AT 08/0940Z AND IS
DECREASING AT THIS TIME. A MODERATE (7.4 PERCENT) FORBUSH DECREASE
PEAKED NEAR 08/1449Z. A MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSING WAS OBSERVED ON
GOES-8 (W075) BEGAN AT 08/1510Z AND CONTINUED UNTIL APPROXIMATELY
08/1615Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS DURING THE
FIRST DAY. GEOMAGNETIC STORMING SHOULD START TO DIMINISH DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS BY THE THIRD DAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE PERIOD IF MODERATE EFFECTS ARE OBSERVED FROM THE
X1/3B EVENT ON 7 JUNE.
III. Event Probabilities 09 JUN to 11 JUN
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 60% |
| Class X | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 08 JUN 175 Predicted 09 JUN-11 JUN 185/190/200 90 Day Mean 08 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUN 013/014 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUN 035/055 PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUN-11 JUN 060/075-025/040-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 JUN to 11 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 40% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 25% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 15% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 50% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 60% | 30% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 30% | 20% | 10% |
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