Viewing archive of Thursday, 8 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 08 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 160 Issued at 2200Z on 08 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 07-2100Z to 08-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. NUMEROUS MINOR C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED. TWO EVENTS WERE OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH REGION 9026 (N21W17). ONLY ONE C1/SF EVENT WAS OPTICALLY CORRELATED WITH REGION 9033 (N22E42) AT 08/1811Z. REGION 9026 SHOWED A MODERATE INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF SPOTS WHILE THE AREA SLIGHTLY DECREASED, AND THE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION OF THE REGION BECAME BETA GAMMA. OVERALL, IT APPEARS 9026 IS STARTING TO DECAY. SIGNIFICANT GROWTH WAS OBSERVED IN REGION 9033. NEW REGIONS 9035 (S17E15) AND 9036 (S23E73) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE MODERATE TO HIGH. REGION 9026 AND 9033 ARE EACH CAPABLE OF PRODUCING M-CLASS AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 07/2100Z TO 08/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO SEVERE STORM. A SUDDEN IMPULSE OCCURRED AT 08/0909Z (77 NT, AS MEASURED BY THE BOULDER USGS MAGNETOMETER). THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY JUMPED FROM 520 TO OVER 800 KM/S AT 08/0841Z. MINOR TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS WERE OBSERVED FOLLOWING THE SHOCK ARRIVAL. THIS SHOCK IS PRESUMED TO BE RELATED TO THE X2/3B EVENT ON 06 JUNE. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT PEAKED AT 84 PFU'S AT 08/0940Z AND IS DECREASING AT THIS TIME. A MODERATE (7.4 PERCENT) FORBUSH DECREASE PEAKED NEAR 08/1449Z. A MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSING WAS OBSERVED ON GOES-8 (W075) BEGAN AT 08/1510Z AND CONTINUED UNTIL APPROXIMATELY 08/1615Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS DURING THE FIRST DAY. GEOMAGNETIC STORMING SHOULD START TO DIMINISH DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD. CONDITIONS BY THE THIRD DAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST DURING THE LATER PART OF THE PERIOD IF MODERATE EFFECTS ARE OBSERVED FROM THE X1/3B EVENT ON 7 JUNE.
III. Event Probabilities 09 JUN to 11 JUN
Class M70%70%60%
Class X25%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       08 JUN 175
  Predicted   09 JUN-11 JUN  185/190/200
  90 Day Mean        08 JUN 188
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 07 JUN  013/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 08 JUN  035/055
PREDICTED AFR/AP 09 JUN-11 JUN  060/075-025/040-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 JUN to 11 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%40%30%
Minor storm40%25%15%
Major-severe storm25%15%05%
B. High Latitudes
Active10%50%40%
Minor storm60%30%20%
Major-severe storm30%20%10%

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