Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 07 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9026 (N20W03) PRODUCED AN X1/3B EVENT AT 07/1553Z. THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 200 SFU TENFLARE, A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF 826 KM/S, AND A WEAK TYPE IV SWEEP. LASCO/EIT IMAGERY ALSO OBSERVED A FAINT HALO CME WITH THIS EVENT. EARLIER, REGION 9031 (S31W77) PRODUCED AN M2/1B EVENT AT 07/0444Z. REGION 9026 RETAINED ITS BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION WITH 27 SPOTS, BUT HAS DECREASED SOME IN OVERALL AREA. THE REGION AREA DECREASED FROM APPROXIMATELY 800 MILLIONTHS YESTERDAY TO 590 MILLIONTHS TODAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9026 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE M-CLASS AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10 MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT THRESHOLD AT 07/1335Z AND HAS NOT YET PEAKED (07/2100Z FLUX AT 25 PFU).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL HALO CME FROM THE X2/3B EVENT ON 06 JUNE, THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE PERIOD TO ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. THE THIRD DAY MAY FIRST SEE A SHORT DECLINE IN ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO STORMING LEVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM THE X1/3B EVENT TODAY.
III. Event Probabilities 08 JUN to 10 JUN
Class M70%70%70%
Class X20%15%15%
Proton15%15%10%
PCAFRED
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       07 JUN 180
  Predicted   08 JUN-10 JUN  190/200/210
  90 Day Mean        07 JUN 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JUN  013/016
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUN  012/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUN-10 JUN  040/045-060/075-025/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 JUN to 10 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%30%40%
Minor storm25%40%20%
Major-severe storm20%25%15%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%10%30%
Minor storm40%60%30%
Major-severe storm25%30%20%

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