Viewing archive of Wednesday, 7 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 07 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 159 Issued at 2200Z on 07 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9026 (N20W03) PRODUCED
AN X1/3B EVENT AT 07/1553Z. THIS EVENT HAD AN ASSOCIATED 200 SFU
TENFLARE, A TYPE II SWEEP WITH A SPEED OF 826 KM/S, AND A WEAK TYPE
IV SWEEP. LASCO/EIT IMAGERY ALSO OBSERVED A FAINT HALO CME WITH
THIS EVENT. EARLIER, REGION 9031 (S31W77) PRODUCED AN M2/1B EVENT
AT 07/0444Z. REGION 9026 RETAINED ITS BETA-GAMMA-DELTA MAGNETIC
CONFIGURATION WITH 27 SPOTS, BUT HAS DECREASED SOME IN OVERALL AREA.
THE REGION AREA DECREASED FROM APPROXIMATELY 800 MILLIONTHS
YESTERDAY TO 590 MILLIONTHS TODAY. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED
TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9026 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MORE
M-CLASS AND ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 06-2100Z to 07-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 10
MEV PROTON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT CROSSED THE 10 PFU EVENT
THRESHOLD AT 07/1335Z AND HAS NOT YET PEAKED (07/2100Z FLUX AT 25
PFU).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
DUE TO THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
AN EARTH-DIRECTED FULL HALO CME FROM THE X2/3B EVENT ON 06 JUNE, THE
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS
OF THE PERIOD TO ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS. THE THIRD DAY MAY
FIRST SEE A SHORT DECLINE IN ACTIVITY FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
STORMING LEVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS FROM THE X1/3B
EVENT TODAY.
III. Event Probabilities 08 JUN to 10 JUN
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | RED | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 07 JUN 180 Predicted 08 JUN-10 JUN 190/200/210 90 Day Mean 07 JUN 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 JUN 013/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 JUN 012/015 PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 JUN-10 JUN 040/045-060/075-025/040
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 JUN to 10 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 40% |
| Minor storm | 25% | 40% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 20% | 25% | 15% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 10% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 40% | 60% | 30% |
| Major-severe storm | 25% | 30% | 20% |
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