Viewing archive of Monday, 5 June 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 05 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 157 Issued at 2200Z on 05 JUN 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 04-2100Z to 05-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. THREE SIGNIFICANT FLARES WERE OBSERVED FROM THREE DIFFERENT REGIONS. THE FIRST AND LARGEST WAS AN M3 X-RAY EVENT WITH ACCOMPANYING TENFLARE FROM REGION 9026 (N20E23). THIS REGION IS BY FAR THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLEX REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK WITH OVER 800 MILLIONTHS OF WHITE LIGHT AREA IN AN "E" TYPE BETA-GAMMA-DELTA CONFIGURATION. REGION 9024 (S11W45) PRODUCED A C4/1F FLARE WITH TYPE II AND IV RADIO SWEEPS AT 05/0325Z. THERE IS NO NOTEWORTHY MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY OBVIOUS IN THIS REGION WHICH APPEARS TO BE IN DECAY. AN M1/1F FLARE ERUPTED FROM REGION 9031 (S32W52) AT 05/1359Z. ONLY MINOR GROWTH NOTED IN THIS REGION. NEW REGIONS 9032 (S18E41) AND 9033 (N24E77) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS. REGION 9026 WILL LIKELY PRODUCE M-CLASS FLARES WITH AN ISOLATED CHANCE OF AN X-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED MINOR STORMING CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES. THESE DISTURBED CONDITIONS FOLLOWED THE SUDDEN IMPULSE OBSERVED AT 04/1500Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS THROUGH DAY ONE. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON DAY TWO. UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS ARE LIKELY ON DAY THREE DUE TO A FAVORABLY POSITIONED CORONAL HOLE AND THE POSSIBILITY OF EFFECTS FROM THIS MORNING'S C4/CME AT 05/0325Z.
III. Event Probabilities 06 JUN to 08 JUN
Class M70%70%70%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       05 JUN 171
  Predicted   06 JUN-08 JUN  175/185/195
  90 Day Mean        05 JUN 189
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 JUN  011/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 JUN  020/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 JUN-08 JUN  015/015-010/010-015/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 JUN to 08 JUN
A. Middle Latitudes
Active40%30%40%
Minor storm20%15%30%
Major-severe storm10%10%20%
B. High Latitudes
Active50%40%40%
Minor storm30%25%35%
Major-severe storm20%15%25%

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