Viewing archive of Saturday, 3 June 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 Jun 03 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 155 Issued at 2200Z on 03 JUN 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS HIGH. REGION 9026 (N19E54) PRODUCED
AN M6/2B FLARE WITH AN ACCOMPANYING 310 SFU TENFLARE AT 03/1924UT.
THIS REGION ALSO PRODUCED AN M2/1F AT 03/0849UT. REGION 9026 WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE SOLAR ACTIVITY DURING THE
PERIOD. THIS IS A FAIRLY LARGE (940 MILLIONTHS) AND COMPLEX REGION
(FKO BETA-GAMMA). THE REST OF THE DISK AND LIMB WERE STABLE AND
QUIET.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE TO HIGH. M AND POSSIBLY X-CLASS EVENTS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
REGION 8026.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02-2100Z to 03-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS AT HIGH TO MODERATE
LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS BARRING AN EARTH
DIRECTED CME FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III. Event Probabilities 04 JUN to 06 JUN
| Class M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 03 JUN 166 Predicted 04 JUN-06 JUN 165/175/185 90 Day Mean 03 JUN 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 JUN 012/010 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 JUN 010/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 JUN-06 JUN 008/010-008/010-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 JUN to 06 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Minor storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Minor storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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