Viewing archive of Tuesday, 30 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 30 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 151 Issued at 2200Z on 30 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT OF THE DAY
WAS AN UNOBSERVED C5 AT 2041Z. OF THE 9 SPOTTED REGIONS, REGION 9017
(S13E02) IS THE MOST INTERESTING. IT HAD A C1/0F VERY EARLY IN THE
PERIOD, AT 29/2346Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
AT THE LOW LEVEL.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 29-2100Z to 30-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD VARIED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS, WITH
UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS THE MOST COMMON. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
RELATED TO A HIGH-SPEED CORONAL HOLE STREAM, WITH A VELOCITY OF
600-650 KM/S. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS
ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AT APPROXIMATELY 1400Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE. THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH-SPEED
STREAM SHOULD DIMINISH, AND STRICTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL BY THE END OF THE INTERVAL.
III. Event Probabilities 31 MAY to 02 JUN
| Class M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Class X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 30 MAY 146 Predicted 31 MAY-02 JUN 145/145/145 90 Day Mean 30 MAY 192
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAY 019/024 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAY 020/020 PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAY-02 JUN 015/018-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 31 MAY to 02 JUN
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 20% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 01% |
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