Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 May 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 25 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 25 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST BEING A C9/SF AT 24/2117Z FROM REGION 9004 (N14W74). SOME MINOR DECAY WAS NOTED IN REGION 9004 AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. THE REST OF REGION 9017 (S15E68) ROTATED ONTO THE DISK AND IS NOW AN EHO BETA SUNSPOT GROUP WITH APPROXIMATELY 6 SPOTS. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW TO MODERATE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT FROM REGION 9002 (N21W63), 9004, OR 9017. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. ONE PERIOD OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED FROM 25/0300-0600Z. THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY SLOWLY DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST DAY, BECOMING QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 26 MAY to 28 MAY
Class M 40%30%30%
Class X 05%05%01%
Proton01%01%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       25 MAY 173
  Predicted    26 MAY-28 MAY  165/160/150
  90 Day Mean        25 MAY 196
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 MAY  046/073
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 MAY  020/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 MAY-28 MAY  010/010-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 MAY to 28 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm 10%05%05%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%35%35%
Minor storm 20%10%10%
Major-severe storm 05%05%05%

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