Viewing archive of Thursday, 25 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 25 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 146 Issued at 2200Z on 25 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. SEVERAL C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS
OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST BEING A C9/SF AT
24/2117Z FROM REGION 9004 (N14W74). SOME MINOR DECAY WAS NOTED IN
REGION 9004 AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB. THE REST OF REGION 9017
(S15E68) ROTATED ONTO THE DISK AND IS NOW AN EHO BETA SUNSPOT GROUP
WITH APPROXIMATELY 6 SPOTS. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 9002 (N21W63), 9004, OR 9017.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 24-2100Z to 25-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. ONE
PERIOD OF MINOR STORM CONDITIONS WAS OBSERVED FROM 25/0300-0600Z.
THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY SLOWLY DECREASED DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE FIRST DAY, BECOMING QUIET
TO UNSETTLED ON DAYS TWO AND THREE.
III. Event Probabilities 26 MAY to 28 MAY
| Class M | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Class X | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| Proton | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 25 MAY 173 Predicted 26 MAY-28 MAY 165/160/150 90 Day Mean 25 MAY 196
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 MAY 046/073 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 MAY 020/030 PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 MAY-28 MAY 010/010-010/010-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 MAY to 28 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 40% | 35% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 05% | 05% |
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