Viewing archive of Tuesday, 23 May 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 23 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 144 Issued at 2200Z on 23 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22-2100Z to 23-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE LARGEST EVENT WAS A C9/2F FROM REGION 9002 (N20W37). THIS REGION, DESPITE OBVIOUS DECAY IN WHITE LIGHT, EMERGED AS THE MOST ACTIVE REGION ON THE VISIBLE DISK AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL FLARES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. A SPOTLESS, UNNUMBERED REGION NEAR N07W05 PRODUCED A C5/1N AT 23/1106Z. REGION 8996 (S20W77) CONTINUES TO BE QUITE ACTIVE, BUT ALL FLARE ACTIVITY WAS IN THE LOW C-CLASS CATEGORY. REGION 9004 (N12W48) EXHIBITED LITTLE CHANGE IN SIZE BUT DEVELOPED INCREASED MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY AND PRODUCED A C5/SF AT 23/1945Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8996, 9002 AND 9004 MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS PRECEDED A WEAK SHOCK OBSERVED AT ACE AT 23/1625Z. THE ACE SIGNATURE WAS CONSISTENT WITH A GEOEFFECTIVE TRANSIENT THAT LIKELY ORIGINATED FROM THE C7/1N FLARE AND CME AT 20/0535Z. BZ INITIALLY WENT NORTHWARD, BUT QUICKLY TURNED SOUTHWARD AT 23/1830Z REACHING NEAR -20NT AND RESULTING IN MINOR STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES. BZ RETURNED TO MORE NOMINAL CONDITIONS BY END OF PERIOD.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT UNSETTLED TO MINOR STORM LEVELS. ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS ARE LIKELY THROUGH DAY ONE FOLLOWING TODAY'S SHOCK ARRIVAL. MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH DAYS 2 AND 3.
III. Event Probabilities 24 MAY to 26 MAY
Class M 50%50%40%
Class X 10%10%05%
Proton05%05%01%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       23 MAY 204
  Predicted    24 MAY-26 MAY  195/185/180
  90 Day Mean        23 MAY 197
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAY  008/009
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAY  017/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAY-26 MAY  018/018-015/010-010/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 MAY to 26 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active50%30%30%
Minor storm 30%10%10%
Major-severe storm 15%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active40%40%40%
Minor storm 40%15%15%
Major-severe storm 20%05%05%

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