Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 21 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 21 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. OCCASIONAL
C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8996 (S21W49) DECREASED IN AREA
BY VIRTUE OF PENUMBRAL DECAY, BUT WAS THE MOST FLARE-PRODUCTIVE OF
THE VISIBLE REGIONS. HOWEVER, REGION 8998 (S12W33) WAS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PERIOD - A C8/SF AT 21/1023Z. THIS
REGION SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD AND WAS OF
MODERATE SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE
REPORTED IN THE REMAINING REGIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT
LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED.
ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. PROTON
AND ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT BACKGROUND
LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR ACTIVE LEVELS ON 23 MAY. PROTON AND
ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT
BACKGROUND LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 22 MAY to 24 MAY
| Class M | 60% | 60% | 60% |
| Class X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Proton | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 21 MAY 232 Predicted 22 MAY-24 MAY 225/220/215 90 Day Mean 21 MAY 196
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 MAY 004/006 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAY 008/008 PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAY-24 MAY 008/008-015/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 MAY to 24 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 10% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 01% | 01% | 01% |
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