Viewing archive of Sunday, 21 May 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 21 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 21 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 20-2100Z to 21-2100Z

SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED AT LOW LEVELS. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS SUBFLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8996 (S21W49) DECREASED IN AREA BY VIRTUE OF PENUMBRAL DECAY, BUT WAS THE MOST FLARE-PRODUCTIVE OF THE VISIBLE REGIONS. HOWEVER, REGION 8998 (S12W33) WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE LARGEST FLARE OF THE PERIOD - A C8/SF AT 21/1023Z. THIS REGION SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE DURING THE PERIOD AND WAS OF MODERATE SIZE AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REPORTED IN THE REMAINING REGIONS.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS. OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED. ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. PROTON AND ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED AT BACKGROUND LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR ACTIVE LEVELS ON 23 MAY. PROTON AND ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT BACKGROUND LEVELS.
III. Event Probabilities 22 MAY to 24 MAY
Class M60%60%60%
Class X10%10%10%
Proton05%05%05%
PCAFGREEN
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       21 MAY 232
  Predicted   22 MAY-24 MAY  225/220/215
  90 Day Mean        21 MAY 196
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 MAY  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAY  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAY-24 MAY  008/008-015/010-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 MAY to 24 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active25%30%25%
Minor storm10%15%10%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active30%35%30%
Minor storm15%20%15%
Major-severe storm01%01%01%

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