Viewing archive of Friday, 19 May 2000

Solar activity report

Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 19 2200 UTC
Prepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 140 Issued at 2200Z on 19 MAY 2000

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 18-2100Z to 19-2100Z

ACTIVITY REMAINED AT MODERATE LEVELS BY VIRTUE OF AN OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED M1 AT 19/0058Z. REGIONS 8996 (S21W22), 8998 (S12W09), AND 9002 (N18E18) REMAINED LARGE REGIONS OF MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. EACH PRODUCED OCCASIONAL C -CLASS SUBFLARES. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE. NEW REGION 9011 (N19E69), AN H-TYPE GROUP TRAILING REGION 9010 (N20E57), ROTATED INTO VIEW DURING THE PERIOD.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGIONS 8996, 8998, AND 9002 EACH APPEAR CAPABLE OF M-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE SOMETIME DURING THE PERIOD. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z: GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY REMAINED AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE LEVELS. BRIEF ACTIVE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD DUE TO CORONAL HOLE EFFECTS.
III. Event Probabilities 20 MAY to 22 MAY
Class M 80%80%80%
Class X 15%15%15%
Proton10%10%10%
PCAFYELLOW
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  Observed       19 MAY 254
  Predicted    20 MAY-22 MAY  260/260/265
  90 Day Mean        19 MAY 194
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAY  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAY  012/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAY-22 MAY  015/012-015/012-012/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 20 MAY to 22 MAY
A. Middle Latitudes
Active30%30%25%
Minor storm 15%15%10%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%
B. High Latitudes
Active35%35%30%
Minor storm 20%20%15%
Major-severe storm 01%01%01%

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