Viewing archive of Wednesday, 17 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 17 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 138 Issued at 2200Z on 17 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. THE MOST ACTIVE REGIONS WERE
8996 (S21E03), 8998 (N20E17), AND 9002 (N18E48), ALL OF WHICH
PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS X-RAY EVENTS AND OPTICAL SUBFLARES.
REGIONS 8996 AND 9002 CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGEST REGIONS ON THE
DISK, WITH AREAS OF 1280 AND 820 MILLIONTHS, AND SPOT COUNTS OF 53
AND 29 RESPECTIVELY. A 29 DEGREE LONG, DISAPPEARING SOLAR FILAMENT
(DSF) OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD 17/1808-1843UT, NEAR S22W37. FOUR
NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED DURING THE PERIOD: 9005 (S18W56), 9006
(N26W88), 9007 (S42E12), AND 9008 (S13E50).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGIONS 8996, 8998, AND 9002 ARE ALL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 16-2100Z to 17-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE WITH MINOR STORMING
OCCURRING DURING THE PERIOD 17/03-0900UT AT MID-LATITUDES AND
17/00-0900UT AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED IS EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITH POSSIBLE MINOR
STORMING AT HIGH LATITUDES FOR THE FIRST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THIS
INCREASED ACTIVITY WOULD BE THE RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH A CME
REPORTED ON 15 MAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE ON THE
SECOND DAY AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED ON THE THIRD.
III. Event Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | YELLOW | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 17 MAY 262 Predicted 18 MAY-20 MAY 260/260/265 90 Day Mean 17 MAY 191
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAY 014/018 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAY 021/023 PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAY-20 MAY 025/030-018/020-015/015
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 MAY to 20 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 50% | 30% | 25% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 70% | 35% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 10% | 05% | 05% |
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