Viewing archive of Tuesday, 16 May 2000
Solar activity report
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity 2000 May 16 2200 UTCPrepared by the NOAA © SWPC and processed by SpaceWeatherLive.com
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 137 Issued at 2200Z on 16 MAY 2000IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE DUE TO A SINGLE M3/SF FROM
REGION 9002 (N19E61) AT 16/1551UT. THE OTHER REGIONS SHOWING
SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY WERE 8989 (N18W80), 8993 (S21W84), AND 8998
(S13E28), ALL OF WHICH PRODUCED ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENTS. THE LARGEST
REGION REMAINS 8996 (S21E31) WITH AN AREA OF 1240 MILLIONTHS AND 41
SPOTS. IT HAS YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY. NO NEW
REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO BE MODERATE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED X-CLASS EVENT.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 15-2100Z to 16-2100Z
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE PERIODS COULD
INCREASE ON THE SECOND DAY, ALONG WITH POSSIBLE MINOR STORMING AT
HIGHER LATITUDES DUE TO POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH A CME REPORTED ON
15 MAY.
III. Event Probabilities 17 MAY to 19 MAY
| Class M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Class X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Proton | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 16 MAY 259 Predicted 17 MAY-19 MAY 260/260/265 90 Day Mean 16 MAY 190
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAY 012/016 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAY 015/018 PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAY-19 MAY 015/020-025/030-018/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 MAY to 19 MAY
| A. Middle Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 25% | 50% | 30% |
| Minor storm | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| B. High Latitudes | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Active | 30% | 70% | 35% |
| Minor storm | 15% | 20% | 20% |
| Major-severe storm | 05% | 10% | 05% |
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